سند: طراحی مدل پیش بینی استراتژیک برای توسعه مناطق آزاد تجاری ایران در سال 1414

• تعداد صفحات: 29 -
  
• تهیه کننده: مجله علمی آینده پژوهشی ایران -
  
• سال ایجاد: 2019 -
• زبان سند: انگلیسی
  

دانلود فایل pdf طراحی مدل پیش بینی استراتژیک برای توسعه مناطق آزاد تجاری ایران در سال 1414 هجری (مطالعه موردی: منطقه آزاد چابهار)

Abstract

Purpose: As one of the most critical oceanic ports, Chabahar has attracted the attention of many countries in terms of trade and cost reduction for exporting their goods and services to Western countries in terms of low cost, distance and so on. Therefore, the primary purpose of this article is to show how strategic foresight can contribute to the development of the Chabahar Free Zone.

Methods: This is a qualitative and quantitative combination study. Firstly, using library resources and expert opinions for data collection, and finally, the interpretive structural modeling method is used to draw the model. Expert views on the model and its validity are also used.

Findings: The results show that the favorable model for the future of free zones and in this case Chabahar is composed of factors that pay special attention to geopolitical and geo-economic issues due to the specific geography of this region. The use of futures studies methods, especially environmental scanning, as well as the casual-layered analysis (CLA), depending on the climatic and geographic conditions of this region, is essential.

Conclusion: According to the literature review, no comprehensive study has been done so far on the foresight of free zones, so the proposed model as the first model for free zones foresight can respond to this vital aspect of these areas development.

Keywords: Free Zones, Chabahar, Foresight, Interpretive Structural Modeling.